Asian football could be heading for an unprecedented transformation. The Asian Football Confederation (AFC) is reportedly pushing ahead with plans to introduce a European-style Nations League, potentially bringing promotion and relegation into the qualification systems for both the FIFA World Cup and AFC Asian Cup.
Sports outlet ESPN reported on October 4 that “the AFC has drafted plans for a Nations League that could fundamentally reshape the qualification formats for the FIFA World Cup and AFC Asian Cup.” According to the report, the confederation is expected to formally present a proposal to its member associations on Tuesday for a new Nations League to be held every two years beginning in 2030.
Under the draft proposal, AFC member nations would be divided into three divisions. The top-tier Division 1 and second-tier Division 2 would each feature 18 countries, while the lowest Division 3 would consist of 11 nations divided into three groups.
The centerpiece of the proposed overhaul is the full introduction of automatic promotion and relegation, along with promotion-relegation playoffs that would allow teams to move between divisions based on their results in each edition.
At the end of each biennial competition, the top two and bottom two teams in each division would be automatically promoted or relegated. In addition, the bottom four teams from the higher tier would face the top four from the division below in promotion-relegation playoffs, determining further movement between the leagues. The structure resembles the UEFA Nations League, but with even greater consequences as national teams could effectively find themselves in relegation battles directly connected to World Cup qualification.
The impact would be even greater when the competition is linked to World Cup qualifying, which is expected to be implemented for the first time in the 2032–2033 cycle. The 18 Division 1 teams would play 12 matches on a home-and-away basis, with the top six qualifying directly for the World Cup. The teams finishing seventh through 10th would then contest a round-robin playoff for the remaining two direct qualification spots and one place in the intercontinental playoffs. This means that even a traditional Asian powerhouse such as South Korea could face severe consequences if poor results send it down to Division 2, as even an excellent campaign in the lower tier would leave it unable to compete for direct World Cup qualification during that cycle.
The competition linked to Asian Cup qualification, expected to begin in 2030, would give tournament berths to all 18 Division 1 nations and the top six teams from Division 2. There are also reported plans to move the Asian Cup finals from 2031 to 2032. Regardless of which qualification cycle a Nations League edition is linked to, the top eight teams in Division 1 would advance to home-and-away quarterfinals, followed by semifinals and a final at a neutral venue to determine the Nations League champion.
The proposal does not include regional divisions based on geography or travel distance. Citing an imbalance in the number of participating nations across regions as well as differences in competitive strength, the AFC has reportedly opted for an integrated format covering the entire continent. Matchups would instead be determined through seeded pots and an algorithm. Plans for a completely separate standalone tournament were reportedly abandoned early because of scheduling constraints and the additional financial burden.
Before the full system is introduced, a transitional competition is also being proposed to establish the foundation for promotion and relegation. The AFC has reportedly suggested holding a pilot tournament in 2028–2029 that would also serve as qualification for the 2030 World Cup. Rather than FIFA rankings, results from the joint qualifiers would be used to determine the initial divisions for the first official edition. The pilot competition would test not only the allocation of World Cup places to the top tier but also automatic promotion and relegation as well as promotion-relegation playoffs, ultimately determining the lineup for the inaugural Nations League in 2030.
If the proposed overhaul becomes reality, it would fundamentally reshape Asia’s traditional World Cup qualification structure. National teams could find themselves thrown into an intense battle for promotion and survival, where virtually every match on the Asian stage carries significant consequences.
Sources: Daum